Financial Distress Analysis to Predict the Bankruptcy Rate of State-Owned Banks Using the Altman Z–Score Method (Case Study on Commercial Banks of Persero Listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange for the 2019 – 2021 Period)
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May 31, 2024
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Abstract
Purpose: Bankruptcy is the inability of a company to continue its operations due to a decline in its financial condition and has liabilities or debts that are greater than the value of its assets. This study aims to predict the level of bankruptcy of state-owned banks using the Altman Z – Score method.
Design/methodology/approach: This study uses a quantitative research approach with the Z – Score method. The data used is secondary data in the form of state-owned commercial bank financial reports for the period 2019 – 2021 which are listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX), taken from the official website at www.idx.co.id. The variables used consist of 4 independent variables and 1 dependent variable, namely Working Capital to Total Assets (X1), Retained Earnings to Total Assets (X2), Earnings Before Interest and Taxes to Total Assets (X3) and Book Value of Equity to Book Values of Debt (X4) and analysis index Z – Score (Z).
Findings: The results of the Z – Score calculation, the four banks in this study are in the Gray Area and Distress Area categories because working capital, retained earnings and operating profits are smaller than their total assets, and the amount of debt is greater than their total equity. The chance of bankruptcy will be even greater if the company's management does not immediately make improvements or evaluate the company's financial condition.
Paper type: Research paper
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References
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Vogt, W. P., & Johnson, R. B. (2015). The SAGE dictionary of statistics & methodology: A nontechnical guide for the social sciences. Sage publications.
Almamy, J., Aston, J., & Ngwa, L. N. (2016). An evaluation of Altman’s Z-score using cash flow ratio to predict corporate failure amid the recent financial crisis: Evidence from the UK. Journal of Corporate Finance, 36, 278–285. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jcorpfin.2015.12.009
Altman, E. I., Hotchkiss, E., & Wang, W. (2019). Corporate Financial Distress, Restructuring, and Bankruptcy: Analyze Leveraged Finance, Distressed Debt, and Bankruptcy. Wiley. https://books.google.co.id/books?id=m8qKDwAAQBAJ
Ariffianti, I., Arsana, I. N., & Nuada, I. W. (2022). Analisis Prediksi Kebangkrutan Dengan Metode Altman Z-Score Pada Bank Perkreditan Rakyat Badan Usaha Milik Daerah Di Nusa Tenggara Barat. MEDIA BINA ILMIAH, 16(7), 7021–7032.
CRP, H. S. E. M. S. I. (2021). Bank Dan Lembaga Keuangan Lainnya. Gramedia Widiasarana Indonesia. https://books.google.co.id/books?id=CAAhEAAAQBAJ
Duli, N. (2019). Metodologi Penelitian Kuantitatif: Beberapa Konsep Dasar Untuk Penulisan Skripsi & Analisis Data Dengan SPSS. Deepublish. https://books.google.co.id/books?id=A6fRDwAAQBAJ
Elia, J., Toros, E., Sawaya, C., & Balouza, M. (2021). Using Altman Z”-Score to Predict Financial Distress: Evidence from Lebanese Alpha Banks. Management Studies and Economic Systems, 6(1/2), 47–57.
Emilia, D. R. (2018). Pengaruh Kinerja Keuangan Terhadap Profitabilitas Bank Umum Milik Negara (BUMN) Di Indonesia. University of Muhammadiyah Malang.
Gobenvy, O. (2013). Pengaruh Profitabilitas, Likuiditas dan Leverage dalam memprediksi Financial Distress. STIE Widyagama, Lumajang.
Hakim, Y. A. S., & Himah, W. N. (n.d.). Analisis Kebangkrutan Perusahaan Sub Sektor Perbankan Yang Terdaftar Di Bursa Efek Indonesia (Studi Kasus Pt. Bank J Trust Indonesia Tbk Periode 2017-2019).
Hernawaty, H., Sari, I. K., & Rioni, Y. S. (2021). Analisis Prediksi Kebangkrutan Menggunakan Metode ALTMAN Z-Score Pada PT. Ramayana Lestari Sentosa Tbk. Jurnal Akuntansi Bisnis Dan Publik, 11(2), 80–90.
Hery, S. E. (2015). Analisis Kinerja Manajemen. Gramedia Widiasarana Indonesia. https://books.google.co.id/books?id=glFJDwAAQBAJ
Hoesada, J. (2022). Teori Akuntansi: dalam Hampiran Historiografis Taksonomis. Penerbit Andi. https://books.google.co.id/books?id=z_9cEAAAQBAJ
Kasmir. (2013). Analisis Laporan Keuangan. Rajawali Pers.
Kasmir. (2019). Analisis Laporan Keuangan. PT Raja Grafindo Persada.
Khan, A. R. (2021). Financial Distress Estimation for Bangladeshi Banking Sector: A Study on Publicly Listed Banks.
Konanki, N., & Chodietty, R. S. C. (2022). Role of Financial Soundness of Banking Industry in India By Using Altman Z-Score Model -With Special Reference Punjab National Bank – Empirical Evidence. 58, 182–193.
Kusnandar, V. B. (2022). Kinerja Positif Bank BUMN, Laba Bersih Melonjak 78% Keuangan. Katadata Media Network. https://databoks.katadata.co.id/datapublish/2022/02/21/kinerja-positif-bank-bumn-laba-bersih-melonjak-78
Leki, R. L. R. (2021). Penerapan Model Altman Z-Score Dalam Mengukur Potensi Kebangkrutan (Studi Kasus Pada Perusahaan Perbankan BUMN Yang Terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia Tahun 2018 & 2019). Jurnal Ilmiah Ekonomi Bisnis, 7(1), 148–158.
Metode_Penelitian_Kuantitatif_dan_Kualit. (n.d.).
Nainggolan, H. (2017). Analisis Resiko Keuangan dengan Model Altman Z-Score pada Perusahaan Perbankan di Indonesia (Listed di Bursa Efek Indonesia). Jurnal Ilmiah Akuntansi Dan Keuangan, 6(2), 96–115.
Ntawumenyumunsi, A., & Maringa, E. K. (2022). Application of Edward Altman Z Score model on measuring financial distress of commercial banks listed on Rwanda Stock Exchange (2015-2019). The Strategic Journal of Business & Change Management, 9(1), 130–146.
Platt, H. D., & Platt, M. B. (2002). Predicting corporate financial distress: Reflections on choice-based sample bias. Journal of Economics and Finance, 26(2), 184–199.
Prihadi, T. (2019). Analisis Laporan Keuangan. Gramedia Pustaka Utama. https://books.google.co.id/books?id=SC7GDwAAQBAJ
Rika Anggraeni. (2022). Laba 4 Bank Besar Moncer Sepanjang 2021. Financial.Bisnis.Com. https://finansial.bisnis.com/read/20220203/90/1496336/laba-4-bank-besar-moncer-sepanjang-2021-siapa-juaranya
Rukajat, A. (2018). Pendekatan Penelitian Kuantitatif: Quantitative Research Approach. Deepublish. https://books.google.co.id/books?id=1pWEDwAAQBAJ
Sarwani, S., & Sunardi, N. (2019). Analisis Penggunaan Altman Z-Score untuk Mengetahui Potensi Kebangkrutan Industri KonstruksI (BUMN) di Indonesia Tahun 2013-2017. Proceedings Universitas Pamulang, 1(1).
Setiawan, Y. A., Hakim, H., & Himah, W. N. (2022). Analisis Kebangkrutan Perusahaan Sub Sektor Perbankan Yang Terdaftar Di Bursa Efek Indonesia. Jurnal Manajemen Dan Profesional, 3(1), 59–69.
Simanjuntak, C. E. B., Krist, F. T., & Aminah, W. (2017). Pengaruh Rasio Keuangan Terhadap Financial Distress. EProceedings of Management, 4(2).
Simatupang, E. M. (2020). Penerapan Altman Z-Score Dalam Memprediksi Kebangkrutan Pada PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk. Jurnal Akuntansi Barelang, 4(2), 40–49.
Sugiyono. (2018). Metode Penelitian Kuantitatif. Alfabeta.
Sulaeha. (2018). Analisis Tingkat Kebangkrutan Dengan Menggunakan Model Altman Z - Score (Bursa Efek Indonesia Pada Bank Bukopin Tbk). https://digilibadmin.unismuh.ac.id/upload/2456-Full_Text.pdf
Supriadi, I. (2020). Metode Riset Akuntansi. Deepublish. https://books.google.co.id/books?id=yhz-DwAAQBAJ
Sutra, F. M., & Mais, R. G. (2019). Faktor-Faktor yang Mempengaruhi Financial Distress dengan Pendekatan Altman Z-Score pada Perusahaan Pertambangan yang Terdaftar di Bursa Efek Indonesia Tahun 2015-2017. Jurnal Akuntansi Dan Manajemen, 16(01), 34–72.
Visita, L. (2020). Prediction of financial condition of Indonesian banks using Altman Z-Score model. Journal of Islamic Economics, Management, and Business (JIEMB), 2(1), 67–78.
Vogt, W. P., & Johnson, R. B. (2015). The SAGE dictionary of statistics & methodology: A nontechnical guide for the social sciences. Sage publications.