The Effect of Inflation and Gold Prices on Stock Returns: An Empirical Study of Mining Companies in the Metals and Minerals Subsector Listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange for the Period 2018-2024

Abstract

This study analyzes the stock returns of mining companies listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) in the metals and minerals subsector during the 2018–2024 period. The effects of inflation and gold prices will be evaluated. Data analysis in this study employs multiple linear regression, preceded by tests of classical assumptions, including tests for normality, multicollinearity, heteroscedasticity, and autocorrelation. Subsequently, hypothesis testing is conducted using the t-test, F-test, and the coefficient of determination (R²) to determine the magnitude of the independent variables’ influence on the dependent variable. Multiple linear regression and secondary data obtained from government databases form the foundation of the quantitative methodology used in this study. According to this study, stock returns are not influenced by inflation or gold prices. Furthermore, other variables play a more dominant role in influencing stock return movements, as the research model can only explain a small portion of the variance in stock returns. The findings of this study are expected to be beneficial for capital market researchers and investors.

Keyword: capital market; inflation, gold prices, stock returns.